巴菲特前天(十月十六日)在紐約時報(The New York Times)發表一篇文章，表示他個人對當前股票市場的看法。眾所周知，巴菲特很少對市場情勢公開發表看法，當他說話的時候，投資人最好仔細聆聽，逐句推敲咀嚼。
By WARREN E. BUFFETT
October 16, 2008
THE financial world is a mess, both in the
and abroad. Its problems, moreover, have been leaking into the general economy, and the leaks are now turning into a gusher. In the near term, unemployment will rise, business activity will falter and headlines will continue to be scary. United States
So ... I’ve been buying American stocks. This is my personal account I’m talking about, in which I previously owned nothing but
government bonds. (This description leaves aside my Berkshire Hathaway holdings, which are all committed to philanthropy.) If prices keep looking attractive, my non-Berkshire net worth will soon be 100 percent in United States equities. United States
A simple rule dictates my buying: Be fearful when others are greedy, and be greedy when others are fearful. And most certainly, fear is now widespread, gripping even seasoned investors. To be sure, investors are right to be wary of highly leveraged entities or businesses in weak competitive positions. But fears regarding the long-term prosperity of the nation’s many sound companies make no sense. These businesses will indeed suffer earnings hiccups, as they always have. But most major companies will be setting new profit records 5, 10 and 20 years from now.
Let me be clear on one point: I can’t predict the short-term movements of the stock market. I haven’t the faintest idea as to whether stocks will be higher or lower a month — or a year — from now. What is likely, however, is that the market will move higher, perhaps substantially so, well before either sentiment or the economy turns up. So if you wait for the robins, spring will be over.
A little history here: During the Depression, the Dow hit its low, 41, on
July 8, 1932. Economic conditions, though, kept deteriorating until Franklin D. Roosevelt took office in March 1933. By that time, the market had already advanced 30 percent. Or think back to the early days of World War II, when things were going badly for the in United States Europeand the Pacific. The market hit bottom in April 1942, well before Allied fortunes turned. Again, in the early 1980s, the time to buy stocks was when inflation raged and the economy was in the tank. In short, bad news is an investor’s best friend. It lets you buy a slice of ’s future at a marked-down price. America
Over the long term, the stock market news will be good. In the 20th century, the
endured two world wars and other traumatic and expensive military conflicts; the Depression; a dozen or so recessions and financial panics; oil shocks; a flu epidemic; and the resignation of a disgraced president. Yet the Dow rose from 66 to 11,497. United States
You might think it would have been impossible for an investor to lose money during a century marked by such an extraordinary gain. But some investors did. The hapless ones bought stocks only when they felt comfort in doing so and then proceeded to sell when the headlines made them queasy.
Today people who hold cash equivalents feel comfortable. They shouldn’t. They have opted for a terrible long-term asset, one that pays virtually nothing and is certain to depreciate in value. Indeed, the policies that government will follow in its efforts to alleviate the current crisis will probably prove inflationary and therefore accelerate declines in the real value of cash accounts.
Equities will almost certainly outperform cash over the next decade, probably by a substantial degree. Those investors who cling now to cash are betting they can efficiently time their move away from it later. In waiting for the comfort of good news, they are ignoring Wayne Gretzky’s advice: “I skate to where the puck is going to be, not to where it has been.”
I don’t like to opine on the stock market, and again I emphasize that I have no idea what the market will do in the short term. Nevertheless, I’ll follow the lead of a restaurant that opened in an empty bank building and then advertised: “Put your mouth where your money was.” Today my money and my mouth both say equities.
Warren E. Buffett is the chief executive of Berkshire Hathaway, a diversified holding company.
2008.10.18 03:30 am
美國和海外的金融市場一團糟，金融問題已殃及經濟。短期內，失業率將上揚，商業景氣轉弱，報紙頭條仍會怵目驚心。所以，我已不斷買進美股，是用自己的帳 戶。以前除美國公債外，我沒有別的投資。（這不包括我在波克夏公司的持股，那已預定捐出來做公益。）如果價錢仍具吸引力，我波克夏以外的資產很快會全部轉 成美股。
來談一點歷史：大蕭條期間，道瓊指數在1932年7月8日跌到41點的谷底。但經濟持續惡化到羅斯福1933年3月就任總統時。不過在此之前，股市已勁揚 30%。又如第二次世界大戰初期，美國在歐洲及太平洋戰事皆不利，但股市在1942年4月觸底，比盟軍時來運轉早得多。再者，1980年代初，買股好時機 是通膨肆虐而經濟重挫之時。簡言之，壞消息是投資人最好的朋友，讓你可用低價投資一小塊美國的未來。